USDA Hardiness Zone 6a
Frost Dates for 14127 — Orchard Park, New York
NOAA 1991–2020 normals from Colden 1 N, NY (1,025 ft), 8 miles southeast.
Updated
In Orchard Park, the last spring frost (32°F) is around May 7 in half of years and has passed by May 23 in nine years out of ten. The first fall frost comes around October 11, as early as September 27 one year in ten, leaving a typical freeze-free season of 156 days (NOAA, Colden 1 N, NY).
- Last spring frost
- May 7
- First fall frost
- October 11
- Growing season
- 156 days
- Hardiness zone
- 6a
50% probability
50% probability
freeze-free, 50%
-10 to -5°F (-23.3 to -20.6°C) coldest night
- First snow
- November 4
- Last snow
- April 23
- Winters with snow
- 100%
- Snow per year
- 167.6"
median, 1991–2020
median, 1991–2020
15 of 15 observed
NOAA normal
Frost risk by date in Orchard Park
Half of springs at Colden 1 N, NY see their last 32°F night by May 7; only one in ten is past it by April 24, and one in ten still has one after May 23. Planting tender crops after May 14 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after May 19 20%, and after May 23 10%. The 16 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 71% of the 173 New York stations behind this site's ZIP pages.
In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 11 in half of years, as early as September 27 one year in ten, and holds off past October 29 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 16 days later, around October 27; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is May 13, 10 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 156 days in a typical year, shorter than at 61% of the 173 New York stations; it reaches 178 days one year in ten and falls short of 135 one year in ten. On average 162 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 14 days longer, to about May 21, and return around September 28. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes every winter, usually between November 28 and March 29.
| Low | 90% | 80% | 70% | 60% | 50% | 40% | 30% | 20% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 2 | May 7 | May 13 | May 17 | May 21 | May 24 | May 29 | Jun 1 | Jun 5 |
| 32°F | Apr 24 | Apr 28 | Apr 30 | May 3 | May 7 | May 10 | May 14 | May 19 | May 23 |
| 28°F | Apr 14 | Apr 19 | Apr 22 | Apr 25 | Apr 27 | Apr 30 | May 3 | May 6 | May 13 |
| 24°F | Apr 3 | Apr 6 | Apr 9 | Apr 12 | Apr 15 | Apr 18 | Apr 21 | Apr 24 | Apr 29 |
| 20°F | Mar 23 | Mar 29 | Apr 1 | Apr 2 | Apr 4 | Apr 6 | Apr 10 | Apr 14 | Apr 18 |
| 16°F | Mar 14 | Mar 18 | Mar 22 | Mar 26 | Mar 29 | Mar 31 | Apr 2 | Apr 4 | Apr 9 |
| Low | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 15 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 12 |
| 32°F | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 23 | Oct 29 |
| 28°F | Oct 8 | Oct 15 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 |
| 24°F | Oct 24 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 |
| 20°F | Nov 5 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 19 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 4 |
| 16°F | Nov 11 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 14 |
Freeze probabilities 1991–2020 at Colden 1 N, NY, from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals. Where a temperature is reached in fewer than 99.5% of years, the dates describe only the years that reach it. Not a forecast.
Frost risk on any date in 14127 →Compare Orchard Park with another place →
Weather by month in Orchard Park
July is the warmest month at Colden 1 N, NY, averaging 78°F by day and 57°F at night; January is the coldest at 31°F and 15°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from October to April (a 90% chance or more). From June to August the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, May still brings one in 70% of years.
Warmth for growing adds up to 2,139 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), fewer than at 80% of the 173 New York stations. 31% of them (665) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 549.
| Month | High °F | Low °F | 32°F night | Nights ≤ 32°F | GDD 50°F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 31 | 15 | 100% | 29 | 0 |
| Feb | 33 | 14 | 100% | 26 | 0 |
| Mar | 41 | 21 | 100% | 27 | 4 |
| Apr | 54 | 32 | 100% | 18 | 48 |
| May | 67 | 44 | 70% | 4 | 206 |
| Jun | 75 | 53 | 1% | 0 | 407 |
| Jul | 78 | 57 | 0% | 0 | 549 |
| Aug | 77 | 56 | 0% | 0 | 510 |
| Sep | 71 | 49 | 19% | 1 | 302 |
| Oct | 59 | 40 | 91% | 9 | 96 |
| Nov | 47 | 30 | 100% | 20 | 17 |
| Dec | 37 | 22 | 100% | 27 | 1 |
Monthly normals 1991–2020 at Colden 1 N, NY (1,025 ft), NOAA NCEI. "32°F night": chance of at least one in the month. GDD: growing degree days, base 50°F.
Compared with the next station
The nearest other station, Colden 1W, NY, 8 miles south of Orchard Park and 510 feet higher, has a last frost 3 days earlier (May 4), a first frost 6 days later (October 17), a season 10 days longer.
When it snows in Orchard Park, New York
The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Orchard Park usually arrives around November 4, and the last of the season around April 23. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Colden 1W, NY, 8.1 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Every one of those winters saw snow. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 14 days after the last snow.
Planting calendar for 14127
| When | What to do |
|---|---|
| February 26 – March 12 | Start peppers and aubergines indoorsThey need eight to ten weeks under lights before they can go out. |
| March 12 – March 26 | Start tomatoes indoorsSix to eight weeks gives a transplant big enough to set fruit early. |
| April 9 – April 23 | Sow peas, spinach, lettuce, radish outdoorsThese tolerate light frost and prefer to germinate in cool soil. |
| May 7 onward | Transplant tomatoes, peppers, basil, squash, cucumbersThe average last freeze has passed — still watch the actual forecast. |
| by July 19 | Sow the autumn crop of carrots, beets and brassicasThey need about twelve weeks to size up before growth stops. |
| by September 27 | Harvest tender crops, or be ready to cover themA first freeze two weeks early is well within normal variation. |
| October 11 onward | Plant garlic, mulch beds, lift tender bulbsGarlic wants a cold spell; bare soil loses structure over winter. |
The weeks before and after the 50% dates are general rules of thumb, not NOAA figures; a seed packet gives the timing for each variety.
Where these figures come from
ZIP 14127 is 8 miles from Colden 1 N, NY, which stands at 1,025 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 3 other ZIP codes share the station. The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 14127 in zone 6a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged -10 to -5°F (-23.3 to -20.6°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.
Hardiness zone and temperature range: USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map 2023 (USDA-ARS, Oregon State University), ZIP-code listing, unchanged. °C converted from °F by this site.
Thirty-year averages, not a forecast: check the forecast before planting out. How stations are matched and which pages are offered to search engines: methodology.