Frost Dates for 14525 — Pavilion, New York

Half of springs at Pavilion 2NE, NY see their last 32°F night by May 2; only one in ten is past it by April 20, and one in ten still has one after May 18. Planting tender crops after May 8 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after May 13 20%, and after May 18 10%. The 16 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 71% of the 173 New York stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 14 in half of years, as early as September 30 one year in ten, and holds off past October 31 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 16 days later, around October 30; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is May 6, 12 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 162 days in a typical year, shorter than at 50% of the 173 New York stations; it reaches 184 days one year in ten and falls short of 142 one year in ten. On average 144 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 11 days longer, to about May 13, and return around October 1. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes every winter, usually between December 1 and March 22.

July is the warmest month at Pavilion 2NE, NY, averaging 81°F by day and 59°F at night; January is the coldest at 32°F and 15°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to April (a 90% chance or more). From June to August the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, May still brings one in 57% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 2,459 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), fewer than at 53% of the 173 New York stations. 32% of them (791) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 620.

The nearest other station, Wyoming 3W, NY, 8 miles southwest of Pavilion and 539 feet higher, has a last frost 2 days later (May 4), a first frost 3 days later (October 17), a season 2 days longer.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Pavilion usually arrives around November 21, and the last of the season around March 19. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Mt Morris 2 W, NY, 11.1 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Every one of those winters saw snow. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 44 days after the last snow.

ZIP 14525 is 3 miles from Pavilion 2NE, NY, which stands at 1,020 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 1 other ZIP code shares the station; its figures are presented in full for 14482 (Le Roy). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 14525 in zone 6a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged -10 to -5°F (-23.3 to -20.6°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.