Frost Dates for 22947 — Keswick, Virginia

Half of springs at Monticello, VA see their last 32°F night by April 5; only one in ten is past it by March 21, and one in ten still has one after April 19. Planting tender crops after April 10 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after April 14 20%, and after April 19 10%. The 14 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is narrower than at 80% of the 128 Virginia stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by November 4 in half of years, as early as October 23 one year in ten, and holds off past November 17 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 10 days later, around November 14; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 6, 13 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 213 days in a typical year, longer than at 81% of the 128 Virginia stations; it reaches 233 days one year in ten and falls short of 194 one year in ten. On average 90 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 11 days longer, to about April 16, and return around October 27. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes in 98% of winters, usually between December 31 and February 17.

July is the warmest month at Monticello, VA, averaging 85°F by day and 67°F at night; January is the coldest at 44°F and 26°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to March (a 90% chance or more). From May to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, April still brings one in 67% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 3,772 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), fewer than at 55% of the 128 Virginia stations. 37% of them (1,382) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 809. Precipitation totals 47.0 inches a year, most in July (4.9") and least in January (2.7"); May to September bring 50% of it.

The nearest other station, Charlottesville 2 SSE, VA, 8 miles west of Keswick and 419 feet higher, has a last frost 3 days earlier (April 2), a first frost 4 days later (November 8), a season 8 days longer.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Keswick usually arrives around December 27, and the last of the season around February 21. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Monticello, VA, 6.6 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Every one of those winters saw snow. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 43 days after the last snow.

ZIP 22947 is 7 miles from Monticello, VA, which stands at 758 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 22947 in zone 7a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 0 to 5°F (-17.8 to -15.0°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.