Frost Dates for 40003 — Bagdad, Kentucky

Half of springs at Frankfort Capital City Airport, KY see their last 32°F night by April 15; only one in ten is past it by March 31, and one in ten still has one after May 5. Planting tender crops after April 22 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after April 27 20%, and after May 5 10%. The 20 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 88% of the 113 Kentucky stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 24 in half of years, as early as October 13 one year in ten, and holds off past November 5 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 11 days later, around November 4; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 22, 13 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 192 days in a typical year, shorter than at 50% of the 113 Kentucky stations; it reaches 211 days one year in ten and falls short of 169 one year in ten. On average 98 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 11 days longer, to about April 26, and return around October 15. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes every winter, usually between December 9 and February 27.

July is the warmest month at Frankfort Capital City Airport, KY, averaging 88°F by day and 67°F at night; January is the coldest at 43°F and 25°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to March (a 90% chance or more). From June to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, April still brings one in 88% of years and May still brings one in 15% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 4,141 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), more than at 60% of the 113 Kentucky stations. 38% of them (1,559) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 843. Precipitation totals 47.5 inches a year, most in May (5.1") and least in August (3.2"); May to September bring 44% of it.

The nearest other station, Shelbyville 1 E, KY, 11 miles southwest of Bagdad, has a last frost 16 days later (May 1), a first frost 14 days earlier (October 10), a season 31 days shorter.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Bagdad usually arrives around December 9, and the last of the season around March 9. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Lexington Bluegrass Airport, KY, 28.6 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Every one of those winters saw snow. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 37 days after the last snow.

ZIP 40003 is 10 miles from Frankfort Capital City Airport, KY, which stands at 804 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 2 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 40601 (Frankfort). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 40003 in zone 6b, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged -5 to 0°F (-20.6 to -17.8°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.