Frost Dates for 40831 — Harlan, Kentucky

Half of springs at Baxter, KY see their last 32°F night by April 15; only one in ten is past it by March 31, and one in ten still has one after May 1. Planting tender crops after April 20 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after April 24 20%, and after May 1 10%. The 16 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is narrower than at 68% of the 113 Kentucky stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 30 in half of years, as early as October 17 one year in ten, and holds off past November 10 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 7 days later, around November 6; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 17, 14 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 197 days in a typical year, longer than at 59% of the 113 Kentucky stations; it reaches 216 days one year in ten and falls short of 177 one year in ten. On average 101 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 11 days longer, to about April 26, and return around October 20. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes in 99% of winters, usually between December 20 and February 18.

July is the warmest month at Baxter, KY, averaging 85°F by day and 65°F at night; January is the coldest at 45°F and 26°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to March (a 90% chance or more). From June to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, April still brings one in 86% of years and May still brings one in 11% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 3,806 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), fewer than at 65% of the 113 Kentucky stations. 37% of them (1,390) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 775. Precipitation totals 52.3 inches a year, most in March (5.0") and least in October (3.2"); May to September bring 42% of it.

The nearest other station, Pennington Gap, VA, 18 miles east of Harlan and 196 feet higher, has a last frost 7 days later (April 22), a first frost 10 days earlier (October 20), a season 18 days shorter.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Harlan usually arrives around January 7, and the last of the season around February 19. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Baxter, KY, 2.2 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Snow fell in 96% of those winters. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 55 days after the last snow.

ZIP 40831 is 2 miles from Baxter, KY, which stands at 1,164 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 3 other ZIP codes share the station. The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 40831 in zone 7a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 0 to 5°F (-17.8 to -15.0°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.