Frost Dates for 48158 — Manchester, Michigan

Half of springs at Manchester, MI see their last 32°F night by April 30; only one in ten is past it by April 16, and one in ten still has one after May 16. Planting tender crops after May 6 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after May 10 20%, and after May 16 10%. The 16 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is narrower than at 38% of the 172 Michigan stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 14 in half of years, as early as October 1 one year in ten, and holds off past October 29 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 13 days later, around October 27; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is May 5, 11 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 165 days in a typical year, longer than at 69% of the 172 Michigan stations; it reaches 185 days one year in ten and falls short of 144 one year in ten. On average 148 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 10 days longer, to about May 10, and return around October 3. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes every winter, usually between December 1 and March 19.

July is the warmest month at Manchester, MI, averaging 83°F by day and 60°F at night; January is the coldest at 31°F and 15°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from October to April (a 90% chance or more). From June to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, May still brings one in 47% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 2,680 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), more than at 70% of the 172 Michigan stations. 33% of them (890) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 659. Precipitation totals 33.8 inches a year, most in May (4.1") and least in February (2.0"); May to September bring 49% of it.

The nearest other station, Tipton 2WNW, MI, 9 miles southwest of Manchester, has a last frost 5 days later (May 5), a first frost 4 days earlier (October 10), a season 8 days shorter.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Manchester usually arrives around December 3, and the last of the season around March 14. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Tecumseh, MI, 11.2 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Every one of those winters saw snow. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 47 days after the last snow.

ZIP 48158 is under a mile from Manchester, MI, which stands at 965 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 48158 in zone 6a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged -10 to -5°F (-23.3 to -20.6°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.