Frost Dates for 78659 — Paige, Texas

Half of springs at Smithville, TX see their last 32°F night by March 12; only one in ten is past it by February 18, and one in ten still has one after April 11. Planting tender crops after March 29 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after April 5 20%, and after April 11 10%. The 30 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 91% of the 339 Texas stations behind this site's ZIP pages, so a fixed calendar date is a gamble here.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by November 19 in half of years, as early as November 1 one year in ten, and holds off past December 11 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 14 days later, around December 3; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is March 29, 13 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 251 days in a typical year, longer than at 53% of the 339 Texas stations; it reaches 288 days one year in ten and falls short of 218 one year in ten. On average 34 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 18 days longer, to about March 30, and return around November 7. Nights of 24°F, cold enough to damage hardier plants, come in 87% of winters and 16°F in 14%.

August is the warmest month at Smithville, TX, averaging 97°F by day and 73°F at night; January is the coldest at 63°F and 39°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from December to January (a 90% chance or more). From May to October the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, February still brings one in 88% of years and March still brings one in 66% of years and April still brings one in 25% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 7,084 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), more than at 70% of the 351 Texas stations. 42% of them (2,956) have built up by the end of June, and August adds the most, 1,085. Precipitation totals 37.2 inches a year, most in May (4.5") and least in July (1.9"); May to September bring 43% of it.

The nearest other station, Lexington, TX, 15 miles northeast of Paige, has a last frost 7 days earlier (March 5), a first frost 2 days later (November 21), a season 11 days longer.

Measurable snow is rare here: only 1 of 24 winters from 1991 to 2020 recorded 0.1 inch or more at Fedor 3SE, TX, 7.4 miles away, so there is no typical first-snow date to plan around.

ZIP 78659 is 14 miles from Smithville, TX, which stands at 317 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 2 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 78602 (Bastrop). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 78659 in zone 9a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 20 to 25°F (-6.7 to -3.9°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.