Frost Dates for 22851 — Stanley, Virginia

Half of springs at Big Meadows, VA see their last 32°F night by May 1; only one in ten is past it by April 16, and one in ten still has one after May 19. Planting tender crops after May 8 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after May 12 20%, and after May 19 10%. The 18 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 52% of the 128 Virginia stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 19 in half of years, as early as October 3 one year in ten, and holds off past November 2 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 11 days later, around October 30; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is May 12, 7 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 169 days in a typical year, shorter than at 95% of the 128 Virginia stations; it reaches 192 days one year in ten and falls short of 145 one year in ten. On average 136 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 10 days longer, to about May 11, and return around October 8. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes every winter, usually between December 2 and March 20.

July is the warmest month at Big Meadows, VA, averaging 75°F by day and 59°F at night; January is the coldest at 36°F and 19°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to April (a 90% chance or more). From June to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, May still brings one in 52% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 2,121 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), the fewest of the 128 Virginia stations. 32% of them (674) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 528.

The nearest other station, Luray 5 E, VA, 10 miles northeast of Stanley and 2,140 feet lower, has a last frost 8 days earlier (April 23), a first frost 3 days later (October 22), a season 10 days longer.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Stanley usually arrives around December 1, and the last of the season around March 29. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Big Meadows, VA, 5 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Every one of those winters saw snow. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 33 days after the last snow.

ZIP 22851 is 5 miles from Big Meadows, VA, which stands at 3,540 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 2 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 22827 (Elkton). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 22851 in zone 7a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 0 to 5°F (-17.8 to -15.0°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.