Frost Dates for 23103 — Manakin Sabot, Virginia

Half of springs at Crozier, VA see their last 32°F night by April 17; only one in ten is past it by April 1, and one in ten still has one after May 8. Planting tender crops after April 24 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after May 1 20%, and after May 8 10%. The 21 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 92% of the 128 Virginia stations behind this site's ZIP pages, so a fixed calendar date is a gamble here.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 27 in half of years, as early as October 13 one year in ten, and holds off past November 6 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 9 days later, around November 5; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 24, 14 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 191 days in a typical year, shorter than at 57% of the 128 Virginia stations; it reaches 212 days one year in ten and falls short of 165 one year in ten. On average 107 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 12 days longer, to about April 29, and return around October 17. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes every winter, usually between December 22 and February 25.

July is the warmest month at Crozier, VA, averaging 87°F by day and 66°F at night; January is the coldest at 46°F and 26°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to March (a 90% chance or more). From June to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, April still brings one in 88% of years and May still brings one in 20% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 3,864 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), more than at 50% of the 128 Virginia stations. 36% of them (1,391) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 817. Precipitation totals 44.9 inches a year, most in September (4.6") and least in February (2.8"); May to September bring 46% of it.

The nearest other station, Ashland, VA, 16 miles northeast of Manakin Sabot, has a last frost 7 days earlier (April 10), a first frost 2 days later (October 29), a season 10 days longer.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Manakin Sabot usually arrives around January 3, and the last of the season around March 2. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Crozier, VA, 8.3 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Snow fell in 90% of those winters. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 46 days after the last snow.

ZIP 23103 is 8 miles from Crozier, VA, which stands at 350 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 7 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 23139 (Powhatan). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 23103 in zone 7b, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 5 to 10°F (-15.0 to -12.2°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.