Frost Dates for 23116 — Mechanicsville, Virginia

Half of springs at Ashland Hanover Co Municipal Airport, VA see their last 32°F night by April 10; only one in ten is past it by March 27, and one in ten still has one after April 29. Planting tender crops after April 16 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after April 21 20%, and after April 29 10%. The 19 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 70% of the 128 Virginia stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 31 in half of years, as early as October 17 one year in ten, and holds off past November 13 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 11 days later, around November 11; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 11, 18 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 202 days in a typical year, longer than at 60% of the 128 Virginia stations; it reaches 223 days one year in ten and falls short of 183 one year in ten. On average 88 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 13 days longer, to about April 23, and return around October 21. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes in 98% of winters, usually between December 28 and February 17.

July is the warmest month at Ashland Hanover Co Municipal Airport, VA, averaging 89°F by day and 68°F at night; January is the coldest at 47°F and 28°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to March (a 90% chance or more). From May to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, April still brings one in 75% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 4,310 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), more than at 73% of the 128 Virginia stations. 37% of them (1,601) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 876. Precipitation totals 45.8 inches a year, most in August (4.9") and least in February (2.9"); May to September bring 47% of it.

The nearest other station, Ashland, VA, 9 miles northwest of Mechanicsville, has the same 50% last-frost date, a first frost 2 days earlier (October 29), a season 1 day shorter.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Mechanicsville usually arrives around December 22, and the last of the season around March 2. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Ashland, VA, 9.1 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Every one of those winters saw snow. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 39 days after the last snow.

ZIP 23116 is 5 miles from Ashland Hanover Co Municipal Airport, VA, which stands at 205 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 9 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 23228 (Richmond). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 23116 in zone 7b, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 5 to 10°F (-15.0 to -12.2°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.