Frost Dates for 23919 — Bracey, Virginia

Half of springs at John H Kerr Dam, VA see their last 32°F night by April 5; only one in ten is past it by March 20, and one in ten still has one after April 19. Planting tender crops after April 11 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after April 15 20%, and after April 19 10%. The 14 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is narrower than at 80% of the 128 Virginia stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by November 1 in half of years, as early as October 20 one year in ten, and holds off past November 14 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 10 days later, around November 11; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 7, 12 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 210 days in a typical year, longer than at 78% of the 128 Virginia stations; it reaches 230 days one year in ten and falls short of 190 one year in ten. On average 80 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 12 days longer, to about April 17, and return around October 24. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes in 93% of winters, usually between January 4 and February 5.

July is the warmest month at John H Kerr Dam, VA, averaging 92°F by day and 70°F at night; January is the coldest at 51°F and 29°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to March (a 90% chance or more). From May to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, April still brings one in 66% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 4,896 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), more than at 97% of the 128 Virginia stations. 37% of them (1,827) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 963. Precipitation totals 43.6 inches a year, most in July (4.9") and least in February (2.5"); May to September bring 48% of it.

The nearest other station, Henderson 4 NNE, NC, 20 miles southwest of Bracey and 250 feet higher, has a last frost 8 days earlier (March 28), a first frost 8 days later (November 9), a season 17 days longer.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Bracey usually arrives around January 15, and the last of the season around February 12. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Arcola, NC, 20.6 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Snow fell in 84% of those winters. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 52 days after the last snow.

ZIP 23919 is 10 miles from John H Kerr Dam, VA, which stands at 250 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 3 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 23970 (South Hill). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 23919 in zone 8a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 10 to 15°F (-12.2 to -9.4°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.