Frost Dates for 23974 — Victoria, Virginia

Half of springs at Greenbay 3 NE, VA see their last 32°F night by April 7; only one in ten is past it by March 23, and one in ten still has one after April 28. Planting tender crops after April 13 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after April 18 20%, and after April 28 10%. The 21 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 92% of the 128 Virginia stations behind this site's ZIP pages, so a fixed calendar date is a gamble here.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by November 1 in half of years, as early as October 22 one year in ten, and holds off past November 14 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 11 days later, around November 12; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 8, 20 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 209 days in a typical year, longer than at 75% of the 128 Virginia stations; it reaches 229 days one year in ten and falls short of 187 one year in ten. On average 92 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 13 days longer, to about April 20, and return around October 24. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes in 96% of winters, usually between December 31 and February 12.

July is the warmest month at Greenbay 3 NE, VA, averaging 89°F by day and 68°F at night; January is the coldest at 48°F and 28°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to March (a 90% chance or more). From May to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, April still brings one in 68% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 4,206 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), more than at 70% of the 128 Virginia stations. 37% of them (1,561) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 874.

The nearest other station, Keysville 2 S, VA, 14 miles west of Victoria, has a last frost 1 day later (April 8), the same first-frost date, a season 3 days shorter.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Victoria usually arrives around January 18, and the last of the season around February 26. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Alberta 5 N, VA, 18.8 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Every one of those winters saw snow. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 40 days after the last snow.

ZIP 23974 is 13 miles from Greenbay 3 NE, VA, which stands at 500 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 3 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 23930 (Crewe). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 23974 in zone 7b, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 5 to 10°F (-15.0 to -12.2°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.