Frost Dates for 87016 — Estancia, New Mexico

Half of springs at Estancia 4N, NM see their last 32°F night by May 18; only one in ten is past it by May 5, and one in ten still has one after June 2. Planting tender crops after May 24 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after May 29 20%, and after June 2 10%. The 15 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is narrower than at 46% of the 70 New Mexico stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 1 in half of years, as early as September 21 one year in ten, and holds off past October 15 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 9 days later, around October 10; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is May 21, 12 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 135 days in a typical year, shorter than at 86% of the 70 New Mexico stations; it reaches 153 days one year in ten and falls short of 118 one year in ten. On average 183 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 14 days longer, to about June 1, and return around September 24. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes every winter, usually between November 7 and March 31.

July is the warmest month at Estancia 4N, NM, averaging 90°F by day and 54°F at night; December is the coldest at 49°F and 15°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from October to May (a 90% chance or more). From July to August the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, June still brings one in 13% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 2,760 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), fewer than at 69% of the 70 New Mexico stations. 34% of them (928) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 683. Precipitation totals 13.8 inches a year, most in July (2.4") and least in February (0.4"); May to September bring 65% of it.

The nearest other station, Moriarty 1 NE, NM, 17 miles north of Estancia, has a last frost 4 days earlier (May 14), a first frost 3 days later (October 4), a season 7 days longer.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Estancia usually arrives around November 25, and the last of the season around March 25. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Estancia 4N, NM, 6 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Snow fell in 93% of those winters. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 54 days after the last snow.

ZIP 87016 is 6 miles from Estancia 4N, NM, which stands at 6,140 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 87016 in zone 6a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged -10 to -5°F (-23.3 to -20.6°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.