Frost Dates for 95351 — Modesto, California

Half of springs at Modesto City Co Airport, CA see their last 32°F night by January 31; only one in ten is past it by December 31, and one in ten still has one after February 25. Planting tender crops after February 10 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after February 18 20%, and after February 25 10%. The 25 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is narrower than at 70% of the 220 California stations behind this site's ZIP pages, so a fixed calendar date is a gamble here.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by December 5 in half of years, as early as November 20 one year in ten, and holds off past January 6 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 16 days later, around December 21; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is February 6, 19 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 312 days in a typical year, longer than at 70% of the 219 California stations; it reaches 343 days one year in ten and falls short of 279 one year in ten. On average 12 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 29 days longer, to about March 1, and return around November 22. A 24°F night is unusual: 20% of winters had one.

July is the warmest month at Modesto City Co Airport, CA, averaging 95°F by day and 63°F at night; December is the coldest at 56°F and 39°F. From March to October the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, February still brings one in 45% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 5,078 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), more than at 66% of the 283 California stations. 38% of them (1,951) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 894. Precipitation totals 12.5 inches a year, most in January (2.6") and least in July (0.0"); May to September bring 8% of it.

The nearest other station, Turlock #2, CA, 12 miles southeast of Modesto, has a last frost 25 days earlier (January 6), a first frost 15 days later (December 20), a season 39 days longer.

Measurable snow is rare here: only 0 of 26 winters from 1991 to 2020 recorded 0.1 inch or more at Turlock #2, CA, 12 miles away, so there is no typical first-snow date to plan around.

ZIP 95351 is 3 miles from Modesto City Co Airport, CA, which stands at 73 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 14 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 95355 (Modesto). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 95351 in zone 9b, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 25 to 30°F (-3.9 to -1.1°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.