Frost Dates for 22958 — Nellysford, Virginia

Half of springs at Waynesboro Wtp, VA see their last 32°F night by April 21; only one in ten is past it by April 4, and one in ten still has one after May 10. Planting tender crops after April 30 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after May 4 20%, and after May 10 10%. The 19 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 70% of the 128 Virginia stations behind this site's ZIP pages.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by October 23 in half of years, as early as October 10 one year in ten, and holds off past November 4 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 9 days later, around November 1; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 22, 18 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 184 days in a typical year, shorter than at 70% of the 128 Virginia stations; it reaches 204 days one year in ten and falls short of 162 one year in ten. On average 120 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 11 days longer, to about May 2, and return around October 13. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes every winter, usually between December 16 and February 28.

July is the warmest month at Waynesboro Wtp, VA, averaging 86°F by day and 63°F at night; January is the coldest at 44°F and 23°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to April (a 90% chance or more). From June to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, May still brings one in 28% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 3,419 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), fewer than at 72% of the 128 Virginia stations. 35% of them (1,213) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 759. Precipitation totals 45.4 inches a year, most in September (5.5") and least in February (2.8"); May to September bring 46% of it.

The nearest other station, Montebello Fish Cultural Stn, VA, 13 miles west of Nellysford and 1,397 feet higher, has a last frost 11 days later (May 2), a first frost 10 days earlier (October 13), a season 22 days shorter.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Nellysford usually arrives around January 6, and the last of the season around March 1. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Waynesboro Wtp, VA, 12.2 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Snow fell in 95% of those winters. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 51 days after the last snow.

ZIP 22958 is 12 miles from Waynesboro Wtp, VA, which stands at 1,270 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 6 other ZIP codes share the station; its figures are presented in full for 22980 (Waynesboro). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 22958 in zone 7b, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 5 to 10°F (-15.0 to -12.2°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.