Frost Dates for 76651 — Italy, Texas

Half of springs at Bardwell Dam, TX see their last 32°F night by March 8; only one in ten is past it by February 16, and one in ten still has one after April 1. Planting tender crops after March 18 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after March 24 20%, and after April 1 10%. The 24 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is wider than at 76% of the 339 Texas stations behind this site's ZIP pages, so a fixed calendar date is a gamble here.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by November 21 in half of years, as early as November 3 one year in ten, and holds off past December 9 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 12 days later, around December 3; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is March 18, 14 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 256 days in a typical year, longer than at 60% of the 339 Texas stations; it reaches 285 days one year in ten and falls short of 229 one year in ten. On average 39 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 15 days longer, to about March 23, and return around November 9. Nights of 24°F, cold enough to damage hardier plants, come in 93% of winters and 16°F in 30%.

August is the warmest month at Bardwell Dam, TX, averaging 95°F by day and 74°F at night; January is the coldest at 56°F and 36°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from December to February (a 90% chance or more). From May to October the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, March still brings one in 67% of years and April still brings one in 11% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 6,307 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), fewer than at 53% of the 351 Texas stations. 40% of them (2,501) have built up by the end of June, and August adds the most, 1,066. Precipitation totals 40.4 inches a year, most in October (4.7") and least in July (1.9"); May to September bring 40% of it.

The nearest other station, Hillsboro, TX, 17 miles southwest of Italy, has a last frost 13 days later (March 21), a first frost 11 days earlier (November 10), a season 21 days shorter.

Measurable snow is rare here: only 1 of 18 winters from 1991 to 2020 recorded 0.1 inch or more at Brandon, TX, 10 miles away, so there is no typical first-snow date to plan around.

ZIP 76651 is 15 miles from Bardwell Dam, TX, which stands at 461 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 1 other ZIP code shares the station; its figures are presented in full for 75119 (Ennis). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 76651 in zone 8b, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 15 to 20°F (-9.4 to -6.7°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.