Frost Dates for 86514 — Teec Nos Pos, Arizona

Half of springs at Teec Nos Pos, AZ see their last 32°F night by April 11; only one in ten is past it by March 24, and one in ten still has one after May 2. Planting tender crops after April 19 leaves a 30% risk of a frost on them, after April 24 20%, and after May 2 10%. The 21 days between the even-odds date and the one-in-ten date is narrower than at 47% of the 98 Arizona stations behind this site's ZIP pages, so a fixed calendar date is a gamble here.

In fall the first 32°F night comes by November 1 in half of years, as early as October 16 one year in ten, and holds off past November 12 one year in ten. A hard freeze of 28°F follows 8 days later, around November 9; in spring the one-in-ten date for 28°F is April 13, 19 days before the 32°F one. The freeze-free season lasts 200 days in a typical year, shorter than at 67% of the 98 Arizona stations; it reaches 222 days one year in ten and falls short of 173 one year in ten. On average 117 nights a year drop to 32°F or below. Nights of 36°F, when frost can still settle on leaves in low, open spots, continue 16 days longer, to about April 27, and return around October 21. Severe cold of 16°F or below comes in 99% of winters, usually between December 9 and January 29.

July is the warmest month at Teec Nos Pos, AZ, averaging 95°F by day and 67°F at night; January is the coldest at 45°F and 24°F. A freezing night is all but certain in every month from November to March (a 90% chance or more). From June to September the chance of a 32°F night stays under 10% each month. In spring, April still brings one in 74% of years and May still brings one in 13% of years.

Warmth for growing adds up to 4,243 growing degree days a year (base 50°F), fewer than at 69% of the 102 Arizona stations. 36% of them (1,515) have built up by the end of June, and July adds the most, 959.

The nearest other station, Bluff, UT, 30 miles northwest of Teec Nos Pos and 971 feet lower, has a last frost 13 days later (April 24), a first frost 19 days earlier (October 13), a season 28 days shorter.

The first measurable snow (0.1 inch or more) in Teec Nos Pos usually arrives around December 15, and the last of the season around February 25. Those are the middle dates across the winters of 1991–2020 at Teec Nos Pos, AZ, 13.9 miles away: half of years saw snow earlier, half later. Snow fell in 80% of those winters. The last 32°F night of spring typically comes 45 days after the last snow.

ZIP 86514 is 14 miles from Teec Nos Pos, AZ, which stands at 5,290 feet, the nearest NOAA station that publishes freeze probabilities for 1991–2020. 1 other ZIP code shares the station; its figures are presented in full for 87420 (Shiprock). The 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map lists ZIP 86514 in zone 7a, the band where the coldest night of the year averaged 0 to 5°F (-17.8 to -15.0°C) over 1991–2020; a zone describes winter lows, not frost dates.